CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-06-09T17:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-06-09T17:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/25516/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2 and STEREO A COR2. The source is likely the associated M2.5 flare to the east of AR 13331 (S22E48, east of AR location of S22E38) and the associated eruption seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. An opening of field lines is visible in SDO AIA 171 and 193 imagery, with dimming seen even more to the East of the flare (and AR) location after 2023-06-09T17:08Z and post-eruptive loops starting to form around 2023-06-09T18:00Z. Update: This CME may have been detected at STEREO A on 2023-06-13T08:00Z, but we do not believe a signature was observed at L1 by ACE or DSCOVR.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-06-14T03:39Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
Event id="327"
SIDC URSIGRAM 30611
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 11 Jun 2023, 1231UT
SIDC FORECAST
CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 at around 17:24 UTC on June 09, likely
related to the M2.5 flare from NOAA AR 3331. The CME is directed to the
south-east and the bulk of the CME is not expected to be Earth directed.
However, a glancing blow of the shock may impact Earth in the late evening
of June 13 or in the first half of June 14.
Lead Time: 65.97 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2023-06-11T09:41Z
CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement